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Battleground Seats to Watch

Battleground Seats

With the NDTV exit poll showing a hung assembly with a range of results for all four main parties (32,178 surveyed regionally), the HT-CNN/IBN poll (4,282 surveyed in 32 seats) and Star News (7,200 surveyed in 29 seats) indicating a BJP majority, and the Garhwal Post-Umeed Poll (all 69 seats) showing a BJP minority, speculation on just how the seat distribution will fall is going to get intense over the next few days.

Here are the main exit poll results:

Exit Poll
Source
INC
BJP
BSP
UKD
Others
NDTV
27-35
27-35
4-8
3-7
1-4
HT-IBN/CNN
21-27
33-39
8-10
Star News
25
33
11
GP-Umeed
23
29
7
5
3

There are some clues though. The following fifteen seats were identified by the Garhwal PostUmeed India poll as being marginal seats, where their survey of 18,000 voters in all 70 constituencies indicated a less than 4% separation between the main contenders.

  • Thalisain, Srinagar, Ramnagar, Purola, Pauri, Narendra Nagar, Laksar, Laldhang, Kanda, Kanalichhina, Gangotri, Gangolihat, Bahadarabad, Kedarnath, and Bageshwar.
  • The following four were also considered marginal, although with a 5% separation:

  • Rajpur, Dhanolti, Deoprayag and Didihat
  • These seats will be decisive, but of course, other seats can change as well. Other than these, the pre-poll survey awarded the Congress 24, the BJP 22, the BSP 4, and UKD 4.



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