With the NDTV exit poll showing a hung assembly with a range of results for all four main parties (32,178 surveyed regionally), the HT-CNN/IBN poll (4,282 surveyed in 32 seats) and Star News (7,200 surveyed in 29 seats) indicating a BJP majority, and the Garhwal Post-Umeed Poll (all 69 seats) showing a BJP minority, speculation on just how the seat distribution will fall is going to get intense over the next few days.
Here are the main exit poll results:
|
Source
|
INC
|
BJP
|
BSP
|
UKD
|
Others
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDTV |
27-35
|
27-35
|
4-8
|
3-7
|
1-4
|
| HT-IBN/CNN |
21-27
|
33-39
|
8-10
|
||
| Star News |
25
|
33
|
11
|
||
| GP-Umeed |
23
|
29
|
7
|
5
|
3
|
There are some clues though. The following fifteen seats were identified by the Garhwal Post-Umeed India poll as being marginal seats, where their survey of 18,000 voters in all 70 constituencies indicated a less than 4% separation between the main contenders.
The following four were also considered marginal, although with a 5% separation:
These seats will be decisive, but of course, other seats can change as well. Other than these, the pre-poll survey awarded the Congress 24, the BJP 22, the BSP 4, and UKD 4.
