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Battleground Seats to Watch

Battleground Seats

With the NDTV exit poll showing a hung assembly with a range of results for all four main parties (32,178 surveyed regionally), the HT-CNN/IBN poll (4,282 surveyed in 32 seats) and Star News (7,200 surveyed in 29 seats) indicating a BJP majority, and the Garhwal Post-Umeed Poll (all 69 seats) showing a BJP minority, speculation on just how the seat distribution will fall is going to get intense over the next few days.

Here are the main exit poll results:

Exit Poll
Source
INC
BJP
BSP
UKD
Others
NDTV
27-35
27-35
4-8
3-7
1-4
HT-IBN/CNN
21-27
33-39
8-10
Star News
25
33
11
GP-Umeed
23
29
7
5
3

There are some clues though. The following fifteen seats were identified by the Garhwal Post-Umeed India poll as being marginal seats, where their survey of 18,000 voters in all 70 constituencies indicated a less than 4% separation between the main contenders.

  • Thalisain, Srinagar, Ramnagar, Purola, Pauri, Narendra Nagar, Laksar, Laldhang, Kanda, Kanalichhina, Gangotri, Gangolihat, Bahadarabad, Kedarnath, and Bageshwar.
  • The following four were also considered marginal, although with a 5% separation:

  • Rajpur, Dhanolti, Deoprayag and Didihat
  • These seats will be decisive, but of course, other seats can change as well. Other than these, the pre-poll survey awarded the Congress 24, the BJP 22, the BSP 4, and UKD 4.



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