With the NDTV exit poll showing a hung assembly with a range of results for all four main parties (32,178 surveyed regionally), the HT-CNN/IBN poll (4,282 surveyed in 32 seats) and Star News (7,200 surveyed in 29 seats) indicating a BJP majority, and the Garhwal Post-Umeed Poll (all 69 seats) showing a BJP minority, speculation on just how the seat distribution will fall is going to get intense over the next few days.
Here are the main exit poll results:
|
Source
|
INC
|
BJP
|
BSP
|
UKD
|
Others
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDTV |
27-35
|
27-35
|
4-8
|
3-7
|
1-4
|
| HT-IBN/CNN |
21-27
|
33-39
|
8-10
|
||
| Star News |
25
|
33
|
11
|
||
| GP-Umeed |
23
|
29
|
7
|
5
|
3
|
There are some clues though. The following fifteen seats were identified by the Garhwal Post–Umeed India poll as being marginal seats, where their survey of 18,000 voters in all 70 constituencies indicated a less than 4% separation between the main contenders.
The following four were also considered marginal, although with a 5% separation:
These seats will be decisive, but of course, other seats can change as well. Other than these, the pre-poll survey awarded the Congress 24, the BJP 22, the BSP 4, and UKD 4.
