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2012 Election Results Commentary

The Uttarakhand assembly elections results have been much closer than the exit polls predicted, owing perhaps to anti-incumbency against the centre and postal ballots which have been more influenced by national politics than local issues.

Khanduri’s shock loss owes much to BJP’s ongoing record of backstabbing coming back to haunt them but also Congress MLA Surender Singh Negi’s new status as giant killer. There will probably be intense recrimination due to accusations of sabotage already levied against competing camps within the BJP. However, this is may be party karma given its musical chairs approach to the chief minister post. Khanduri could perhaps still contest the parliamentary elections in 2014. Compared to the ever youthful and frisky N.D. Tiwari at 86, Khanduri will be positively youthful at 79.

The BJP has also done surprisingly well in Udham Singh Nagar, perhaps due to the communal polarization stemming from the recent Rudrapur Riots. Keeping an eye on those newly elected MLAs will be important to ensure the communal harmony of the Terai.

The biggest losers, the BSP and the UKD, will have to think hard about their prospects in the new state. The UKD will need to refound itself, perhaps in conjunction with all the other regional parties that also came up woefully short and split the regional vote at least three ways. The BSP will likewise rethink its strategy in conjunction with the rest of the party in Uttar Pradesh.

The Congress which edged out the BJP by a single seat will have a difficult time putting together a governing coalition, and pounds of flesh will be extracted from the BSP and Independent legislators. Indeed all three independents are actually Congress rebels and several Congress candidates were probably defeated by poorly managed candidate selection across the state. Also, the possibility of Harish Rawat returning to the state has been complicated by this wafer-thin plurality.

On a positive note, the Congress has earned its showing from the hills rather than the plains, an important development that will impact its governance. This is a good outcome for the hills in fact, given concerns over unfavourable delimitation.

Here are the unofficial final tally from the 2012 State Assembly Elections:

32 31 3 1 3
No. Constituency Winning Party Winning Margin Winning
1 Purola BJP 3832 Malchand
2 Yamunotri UKD 2596 Pritam Singh Panwar
3 Gangotri INC 7023 Vijaipal Singh Sajwan
4 Badrinath INC 10201 Rajendra Singh Bhandari
5 Tharali INC 673 Jeet Ram
6 Karanprayag INC 227 Ansuya Prasad Maikhuri
7 Kedarnath INC 2328 Shaila Rani Rawat
8 Rudraprayag INC 1326 Harak Singh Rawat
9 Ghanshali BJP 13694 Bheem Lal Arya
10 Deoprayag IND 1541 Mantri Prasad Naithani
11 Narendranagar INC 401 Subodh Uniyal
12 Pratapnagar INC 542 Vikram Singh Negi
13 Tehri IND 377 Dinesh Danai
14 Dhanolti BJP 1148 Mahaveer Singh
15 Chakrata INC 6654 Pritam Singh
16 Vikasnagar INC 9857 Nav Prabhat
17 Sahaspur BJP 5490 Sahdev Singh Pundir
18 Dharampur INC 9420 Dinesh Agarwal
19 Raipur INC 474 Umesh Sharma
20 Rajpur Road INC 3070 Rajkumar
21 Dehradun Cantt. BJP 5095 Harbans Kapoor
22 Mussoorie BJP 9776 Ganesh Joshi
23 Doiwala BJP 1272 Ramesh Pokhriyal
24 Rishikesh BJP 7271 Premchand Aggarwal
25 Hardwar BJP 8620 Madan Kaushik
26 BHEL Ranipur BJP 6611 Adesh Chauhan
27 Jwalapur BJP 558 Chander Shakhar
28 Bhagwanpur BSP 6781 Surendra Rakesh
29 Jhabrera BSP 3809 Hari Dass
30 Pirankaliyar INC 1944 Furkan Ahmad
31 Roorkee INC 801 Pardeep Batra
32 Khanpur INC 2831 Kunwar Pranav Singh Champion
33 Manglore BSP 698 Sarwat Kareem Ansari
34 Laksar BJP 10394 Sanjay Gupta
35 Hardwar Rural BJP 3875 Yatishvaranand
36 Yamkeshwar BJP 3541 Vijay Barthwal
37 Pauri INC 2906 Sunder Lal Mandrawal
38 Srinagar INC 5063 Ganesh Godiyal
39 Chaubattakhal BJP 1964 Teerath Singh
40 Lansdowne BJP 5438 Daleep Singh Rawat
41 Kotdwar INC 4623 Surendra Singh Negi
42 Dharchula INC 5306 Harish Dhami
43 Didihat BJP 10617 Bishan Singh Chuphal
44 Pithoragarh INC 13197 Mayukh Singh
45 Gangolihat INC 7880 Narayanram Arya
46 Kapkot INC 1369 Lalit Farswan
47 Bageshwar BJP 1911 Chandan Ram Dass
48 Dwarahat INC 3326 Mandan Singh Bisht
49 Salt BJP 5444 Surendra Singh Jeena
50 Ranikhet BJP 78 Ajay Bhatt
51 Someshwar BJP 2691 Ajay Tamta
52 Almora INC 1181 Manoj Tiwari
53 Jageshwar INC 3865 Govind Singh Kunjwal
54 Lohaghat BJP 11535 Puran Singh
55 Champawat INC 6953 Sri Hemesh Kharkwal
56 Lal Kuan IND 8848 Harish Chandra Durgapal
57 Bhimtal BJP 6443 Dan Singh Bhandari
58 Nainital INC 6308 Sarita Arya
59 Haldwani INC 23583 Indira Hriyadesh
60 Kaladhungi BJP 2370 Banshidhar Bhagat
61 Ramnagar INC 3729 Amrita Rawat
62 Jaspur INC 2780 Dr. Shailendra Mohan Singhal
63 Kashipur BJP 2382 Harbhajan Singh Cheema
64 Bajpur INC 15131 Yashpal Arya
65 Gadarpur BJP 5133 Arvind Pande
66 Rudrapur BJP 3954 Raj Kumar Thukral
67 Kichha BJP 8226 Rajesh Shukla
68 Sitarganj BJP 12612 Kiran Chand Mandal
69 Nanak Matta BJP 5631 Prem Singh
70 Khatima BJP 5394 Pushkar Singh Dhami