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The Uttarakhand assembly elections results have been much closer than the exit polls predicted, owing perhaps to anti-incumbency against the centre and postal ballots which have been more influenced by national politics than local issues.

Khanduri’s shock loss owes much to BJP’s ongoing record of backstabbing coming back to haunt them but also Congress MLA Surender Singh Negi’s new status as giant killer. There will probably be intense recrimination due to accusations of sabotage already levied against competing camps within the BJP. However, this is may be party karma given its musical chairs approach to the chief minister post. Khanduri could perhaps still contest the parliamentary elections in 2014. Compared to the ever youthful and frisky N.D. Tiwari at 86, Khanduri will be positively youthful at 79.

The BJP has also done surprisingly well in Udham Singh Nagar, perhaps due to the communal polarization stemming from the recent Rudrapur Riots. Keeping an eye on those newly elected MLAs will be important to ensure the communal harmony of the Terai.

The biggest losers, the BSP and the UKD, will have to think hard about their prospects in the new state. The UKD will need to refound itself, perhaps in conjunction with all the other regional parties that also came up woefully short and split the regional vote at least three ways. The BSP will likewise rethink its strategy in conjunction with the rest of the party in Uttar Pradesh.

The Congress which edged out the BJP by a single seat will have a difficult time putting together a governing coalition, and pounds of flesh will be extracted from the BSP and Independent legislators. Indeed all three independents are actually Congress rebels and several Congress candidates were probably defeated by poorly managed candidate selection across the state. Also, the possibility of Harish Rawat returning to the state has been complicated by this wafer-thin plurality.

On a positive note, the Congress has earned its showing from the hills rather than the plains, an important development that will impact its governance. This is a good outcome for the hills in fact, given concerns over unfavourable delimitation.

Here are the unofficial final tally from the 2012 State Assembly Elections: